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At the beginning of 2022, business travel market players are trying to look into the future and highlight the trends that will determine the pace of recovery in the sector. We turned to our own expert for a forecast and interviewed Galina Polishchuk, Managing Director at Vipservice Corporate Business.
Galina, to which extent will the business travel industry recover in 2022?
It is too early to talk about the full recovery of the industry. The new Omicron strain and the increase in the incidence of disease will likely limit business trips at least in the 1st quarter of 2022. I suppose that the companies’ management will closely assess the risks of travel during the new wave of COVID. However, both businesses and the government would like to avoid "lockdowns" of the same scale as imposed in 2020. In the optimistic scenario, corporations will partially return to their previous business travel volumes and restore business travel spending in the 4th quarter of 2022 to 70-90% compared to 2019.
Which formats and destinations of business trips will be most in demand, in your opinion? What will shape customer priorities?
I am convinced that this year the trend for trips and events within the country will continue. Popularity of St. Petersburg, Sochi and Kazan during 2020-2021 among our clients soared 1.5 times compared to the “pre-pandemic” 2019. We also see an increase in demand for more environmentally friendly travel and interest in natural locations: more customers would like to hold outdoor events, for example, in Baikal, Kamchatka or Altai.
Nearly two years of remote work have changed people's behavior, kick-started innovative technology and redefined corporate priorities. Online events and virtual meetings have become an integral part of business communication. According to a study by Morgan Stanley, the volume of online communication in 2021-2023 will decrease, but will remain at a fairly high level (above 20%). However, I believe that live meetings will still be necessary for negotiations with clients. For example, only 13% of our customers found online meetings to be effective, according to the February 2021 data.
Speaking about the priorities of companies, the ESG agenda received a new impetus during the pandemic. This includes the use of eco-friendly materials and the reduction of water and electricity costs. Still I believe that in 2022 in Russia the issue of effective budgeting will have a greater influence on travel decision-making within companies than concern for the environment.
Another trend is an ever more important role of duty of care. Corporations strive to protect employees as much as possible during business trips by risk management, insurance in case of an illness and 24/7 support centers.
How do you think the vaccine recognition process will affect foreign business trips this year?
Mutual recognition of vaccines and standardization of documents for traveling abroad could simplify business travel planning. I believe that in 2022 countries will take new steps towards unifying the requirements for COVID regulations. Over 70 countries around the world have already allowed entry to Sputnik V vaccinated passengers, although most European countries and the United States remain closed to Russians.
To my mind, it is important to create a "digital health passport" of a passenger which would allow storing any electronic medical certificates that confirm a COVID status. This could significantly reduce the queues at check-in counters at airports. The International Air Transport Association has been developing the idea through the IATA Travel Pass mobile app together with the airlines participating in this project.
Vaccination tourism for an injection of a vaccine recognized by the WHO will not lead to full restart of international business trips from Russia. Therefore, we hope that in the future countries will find a common ground to ensure more convenient and safe travel.
What changes may be expected in the visa legislation globally during the pandemic?
There are no prerequisites that this year the issuance of visas will be tied to the green “covid status”. In Europe, the visa legislation will not change in favor of the vaccinated in the near future. At the same time, in fact travelers are denied entry without COVID status documents like vaccination certificates and PCR test results. In some cases these are also required within Russia, for example, to check into a hotel, so it is vital to have unified and generally approved format of vaccination certificates or valid PCR tests.
Additional information: read Galina's expert opinion in RIA Novosti
